Why Efforts to Stem Foreclosures
Are Failing,
by Lita Epstein, July 28, 2009
(reprinted for educational purposes only)
As the numbers of foreclosures continue to mount, the Obama
administration called loan servicers to a meeting today in
Washington to figure out what can be done to save the
mortgage-rescue plan. Only 200,000 people have been helped
since the plan -- which was supposed to help 4 to 5 million
-- was announced. To understand the gravity of the matter
and the magnitude of the failure, consider that during the
first six months of 2009 alone, 1.5 million people received
foreclosure notices.
That certainly appears to be failure by any measure. A big
stumbling block was that the program was announced before
the rules were in place. Many banks are just now starting
their efforts under the Obama plan.
Bank of America (BAC)
just began
implementation of the plan
in July for all at-risk borrowers, according to today's
Wall Street Journal. A spokesman for the bank said it
has been putting borrowers on a plan that allows them to
make a partial mortgage payment for several months. Those
who prove they can pay are then considered for loan
modification.
Wells Fargo (WFC)
didn't start to offer borrowers loan modifications under the
Obama plan until June. The bank was waiting for final
federal guidelines on key issues, such as how to determine
whether a loan modification is preferable to foreclosure.
Even a study done by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
showed that in many cases
foreclosures are not in the
lender's best interest. Essentially, there are
three groups of distressed borrowers, but loan modification
only makes economical sense for the bank only with one of
them.
The group for which modification makes sense are distressed
borrowers who can't sustain payments without modification
but will be able to pay with new, more modest terms. The
second group is distressed borrowers who will likely fall
behind again after getting their loan modified, just
delaying foreclosure. A delayed foreclosure means more
losses for the bank because the house probably is not being
taken care of and house prices continue to drop.
Finally, the third group of distressed borrowers is those
who will self-cure after two to three months. That means
they will find a way to start paying their mortgage again.
Lenders have little financial incentive to help people until
they are at least three months behind on their mortgages.
That's why so many people are being told to stop paying in
order to get a loan modification. But that goes against the
aim of the Obama rescue program.
Adding to these complications are the growing number of
unemployed. Existing
loan modification programs don't
help the jobless because they don't have the
income to sustain even reduced monthly payments. For
example, according to CNNMoney, Morris Davis, an assistant
professor at the Wisconsin School of Business, estimates
that with 10 percent unemployment there could be 1.9 million
borrowers facing foreclosure.
Several options are being considered to help people who have
lost their jobs. One involves grants and another involves
low-cost loans for people who have reasonable prospects for
reemployment. The programs are being proposed to be run by
state housing agencies, who are in the best position to
determine eligibility. The hope is that this will take some
pressure off lenders who are already overwhelmed by requests
for loan modifications. But the proposal is likely to be met
with great resistance. Congress is not in the mood to commit
any more money than the billions already allocated for the
housing crisis.
If the loan modification program is not working and the
major driving force behind the growing number of homeowners
facing foreclosure is job loss, then maybe it's time to
shift money planned for modification into a program to help
the jobless to temporarily stay in their homes. Whatever is
finally decided, the key to stabilization of the housing
market is to stem foreclosures.
Unless the Obama administration figures out some combination
of programs that will meet the goal of preventing more
foreclosures, there is little hope that housing prices will
stabilize. That means even more homeowners will find
themselves underwater and more will be tempted to walk away
from huge loses. If banks don't want to help, it's time to
spend bailout money to help Main Street rather than Wall
Street.
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